Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 9.563776 10.987984 12.521895 14.293156 16.278325 18.430777 20.937292
2025-11-16 7.459975 9.383876 11.617829 14.388579 17.716788 21.569068 26.347271
2025-11-23 6.243798 8.335809 10.886671 14.198273 18.353004 23.359855 29.813133
2025-11-30 5.439908 7.661869 10.491921 14.316657 19.300083 25.517288 33.796315
2025-12-07 4.936733 7.280248 10.378174 14.709260 20.533243 28.009952 38.235592
2025-12-14 4.322718 6.667290 9.880368 14.520983 20.951104 29.431481 41.322987
2025-12-21 3.678612 5.931833 9.131277 13.901119 20.704493 29.911792 43.132734
2025-12-28 3.425734 5.734977 9.112886 14.283143 21.835546 32.274402 47.555354
2026-01-04 3.171391 5.505300 9.018386 14.532490 22.771276 34.387323 51.701131
2026-01-11 2.860984 5.153451 8.705666 14.423968 23.162802 35.729062 54.795576
2026-01-18 2.581641 4.821525 8.391566 14.280614 23.477180 36.952286 57.745672
2026-01-25 2.360353 4.562876 8.168538 14.254628 23.953080 38.413739 61.078897
2026-02-01 2.180810 4.362853 8.030772 14.363313 24.655662 40.263986 65.099571
2026-02-08 1.989325 4.122170 7.805444 14.311542 25.098085 41.735449 68.608940
2026-02-15 1.805150 3.874114 7.544066 14.174368 25.382748 42.958553 71.764280
2026-02-22 1.677442 3.718689 7.429735 14.273662 26.049249 44.791837 75.914711
2026-03-01 1.605481 3.663809 7.488749 14.672194 27.225305 47.467838 81.467386
2026-03-08 1.458152 3.442596 7.225652 14.481861 27.391152 48.522178 84.480467
2026-03-15 1.271705 3.119739 6.745158 13.864306 26.783270 48.281885 85.393354
2026-03-22 1.222810 3.083215 6.808104 14.245139 27.930430 50.968895 91.137775
2026-03-29 1.162146 3.014551 6.802106 14.494023 28.850884 53.305026 96.375520
2026-04-05 1.068345 2.861500 6.615498 14.385711 29.119839 54.544921 99.828482
2026-04-12 0.979461 2.709633 6.418604 14.242702 29.313613 55.655998 103.092198